2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Holstein Kiel — Dynamo Dresden
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Holstein Kiel are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Holstein Kiel are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Holstein Kiel — Dynamo Dresden What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Holstein Kiel not to lose | 73% | |
| Dynamo Dresden not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel goals
- Dynamo Dresden goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Eintracht Braunschweig0:1
- 19.09VfL Osnabrück1:1
- 13.09away · FC Heidenheim0:1
- 05.091. FC Nürnberg2:2
- 30.08away · Magdeburg0:2
- 10.10away · VfL Osnabrück1:1
- 19.09Hertha BSC1:2
- 12.09away · Eintracht Braunschweig2:2
- 05.09Bochum1:2
- 29.08away · FC Heidenheim3:5
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Dynamo Dresden — Holstein Kiel2:1
- 20.12.2025Holstein Kiel — Dynamo Dresden2:1
- 16.04.2022Dynamo Dresden — Holstein Kiel0:0
- 05.11.2021Holstein Kiel — Dynamo Dresden2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
| 18, Relegation | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | -4 | 4 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Eintracht BraunschweigHannover 96preliminary2828452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- VfL OsnabrückGreuther Fürthpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →