Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Monday, 12 October, 20:00 MSK · KFUM Arena

KFUM — Vålerenga

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true

KFUM37%

Draw29%

Vålerenga34%

Model estimate at 18:05 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, KFUM to win (37%), came true.

Evenly matched: KFUM 37%, Vålerenga 34%, draw 29%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: KFUM — Vålerenga What is xG?		1.5–1.4
KFUM not to lose		66%
Vålerenga not to lose		63%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap KFUM
KFUM goals
Vålerenga goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

KFUM

18.09away · Sarpsborg 083:1
13.09Aalesund2:1
06.09away · Molde0:2
30.08away · Start1:4
15.08Lillestrøm1:1

Vålerenga

20.09Fredrikstad1:1
12.09away · Lillestrøm0:2
06.09away · Sarpsborg 082:2
30.08Molde3:4
16.08away · Aalesund5:5

Head to head

03.05.2026Vålerenga — KFUM2:2
20.09.2025Vålerenga — KFUM1:1
26.05.2025KFUM — Vålerenga0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Sarpsborg 08	22	7	7	8	28–31	-3	28
10	KFUM	22	8	4	10	27–36	-9	28
11	Hamarkameratene	22	7	5	10	33–46	-13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	6	6	10	22–28	-6	24
13	Vålerenga	22	6	5	11	35–45	-10	23
14, Relegation play-off	Aalesund	22	4	9	9	35–50	-15	21

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

18:00
VålerengaBrann18 October · Eliteserien
342739
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.5
20:15
TromsøKFUM18 October · Eliteserien
642214
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →