A-League Men (Australia), round 1 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Macarthur FC — Perth Glory
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Macarthur FC are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Macarthur FC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Macarthur FC — Perth Glory What is xG? | 1.7–1.3 | |
| Macarthur FC not to lose | 74% | |
| Perth Glory not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Macarthur FC
- Macarthur FC goals
- Perth Glory goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 24.04Wellington Phoenix4:0
- 19.04away · Adelaide United1:3
- 12.04away · Perth Glory1:3
- 02.04Newcastle Jets3:2
- 21.03away · Auckland FC2:1
- 25.04Brisbane Roar FC2:1
- 18.04away · Sydney FC0:0
- 12.04Macarthur FC3:1
- 04.04away · Central Coast Mariners2:2
- 22.03Melbourne City FC1:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Perth Glory — Macarthur FC3:1
- 06.02.2026Macarthur FC — Perth Glory2:2
- 30.11.2025Macarthur FC — Perth Glory0:2
- 27.12.2024Perth Glory — Macarthur FC0:3
- 20.10.2024Macarthur FC — Perth Glory6:1
A-League on the same day
- 4328281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 2626492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →