J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Machida Zelvia — Gamba Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Machida Zelvia are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Machida Zelvia are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Machida Zelvia — Gamba Osaka What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 79% | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia goals
- Gamba Osaka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 20.09Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 12.09Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 06.09away · Nagoya Grampus3:1
- 02.09Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 20.09Vissel Kobe0:1
- 12.09FC Tokyo0:2
- 06.09away · JEF United Chiba0:2
- 02.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:2
Head to head
- 20.08.2025Machida Zelvia — Gamba Osaka3:1
- 02.04.2025Gamba Osaka — Machida Zelvia0:1
- 30.06.2024Gamba Osaka — Machida Zelvia1:3
- 24.02.2024Machida Zelvia — Gamba Osaka1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
J1 League on the same day
- Yokohama F.MarinosKawasaki Frontalepreliminary4029321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- JEF United ChibaAvispa Fukuokapreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- V-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdypreliminary4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →