Brazilian Serie B, round 35 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
São Bernardo — Vila Nova
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
São Bernardo are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Bernardo — Vila Nova What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| São Bernardo not to lose | 71% | |
| Vila Nova not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 35% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 65% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Juventude2:2
- 07.10away · Sport Recife1:2
- 03.10CRB3:1
- 26.09away · Novorizontino0:0
- 19.09Atlético-GO1:0
- 11.10away · Náutico2:0
- 08.10Cuiabá0:0
- 04.10away · Botafogo SP1:0
- 26.09Londrina2:0
- 19.09América-MG1:0
Head to head
- 07.07.2026Vila Nova — São Bernardo2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | +15 | 61 |
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- Operário-PRAthletic Club MGpreliminary4927251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Sport RecifeCriciúmapreliminary4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- AvaíBotafogo SPpreliminary4430261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Atlético-GONovorizontinopreliminary342937XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →