Swiss Super League, round 11 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Thun — Lugano
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lugano are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Thun — Lugano What is xG? | 1.4–1.8 | |
| Thun not to lose | 54% | |
| Lugano not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Thun
- Thun goals
- Lugano goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · FC Zürich2:4
- 20.09away · FC Vaduz2:1
- 16.09Servette2:4
- 12.09Grasshopper0:1
- 06.09away · Sion2:3
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Thun — Lugano0:1
- 04.04.2026Lugano — Thun1:0
- 22.11.2025Thun — Lugano0:1
- 27.07.2025Lugano — Thun1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Lugano | 10 | 9 | +24 | 28 |
| 2, Championship round | Young Boys | 10 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 8, Relegation round | Luzern | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 9, Relegation round | Thun | 10 | 3 | -10 | 10 |
| 10, Relegation round | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
Swiss Super League on the same day
- BaselGrasshopperpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
- SionLausannepreliminary5725181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →