UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 1 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion
Belarus — San Marino
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4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Belarus to win (87%), came true.
Belarus are clear favourites: 87% against 2% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 28%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Belarus 1514, San Marino 821 — Belarus clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Belarus — San Marino What is xG? | 2.8–0.3 | |
| Belarus not to lose | 98% | |
| San Marino not to lose | 13% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 28% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 72% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Belarus
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- San Marino goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 29.09away · Finland0:0
- 26.09away · Albania0:2
- 09.06Burkina Faso2:2
- 05.06Syria4:1
- 29.03away · Armenia2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Albania | 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Finland | 4 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | -15 | 0 |
Next matches
- BelarusFinland6 October · UEFA Nations League2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- AlbaniaSan Marino6 October · UEFA Nations League95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →