Russian Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Gazovik
FC Orenburg — Dynamo Makhachkala
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4:0Missed
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (34%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 34% fails in about 66 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Orenburg are slightly stronger: 40% against 26%, draw 34%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Orenburg — Dynamo Makhachkala What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 74% | |
| Dynamo Makhachkala not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Orenburg
- FC Orenburg goals
- Dynamo Makhachkala goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 30.08away · Spartak Moscow1:1
- 17.09CSKA Moscow1:3
- 13.09away · FK Akhmat2:3
- 06.09Rodina2:0
- 02.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg0:3
- 30.08away · Rubin Kazan1:3
Head to head
- 13.03.2026Dynamo Makhachkala — FC Orenburg1:0
- 27.07.2025FC Orenburg — Dynamo Makhachkala1:1
- 19.04.2025FC Orenburg — Dynamo Makhachkala2:1
- 09.11.2024Dynamo Makhachkala — FC Orenburg2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 10 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Next matches
- Dynamo MakhachkalaZenit St. Petersburg14 October · Russian Cup1017732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.2
- Rubin KazanFC Orenburg15 October · Russian Cup4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 263440XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
- 1930522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 373330XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →