Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Mainz 05 are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mainz 05 are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen What is xG? | 1.9–1.2 | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 79% | |
| Werder Bremen not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mainz 05
- Mainz 05 goals
- Werder Bremen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 19.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 12.09Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
- 06.09away · Hamburger SV5:0
- 29.08Paderborn0:0
- 09.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:2
- 19.09Augsburg3:2
- 12.09away · 1. FC Köln1:1
- 05.09RB Leipzig3:1
- 30.08away · Freiburg1:4
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Werder Bremen — Mainz 050:2
- 01.11.2025Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen1:1
- 31.01.2025Werder Bremen — Mainz 051:0
- 15.09.2024Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen1:2
- 03.02.2024Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgUnion Berlinpreliminary393230XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.9
- 1. FC KölnSchalke 04preliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- PaderbornHamburger SVpreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- RB LeipzigElversbergpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →