Serie A, round 9 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Monza — Napoli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Napoli are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Napoli are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monza — Napoli What is xG? | 0.8–1.7 | |
| Monza not to lose | 37% | |
| Napoli not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Monza
- Monza goals
- Napoli goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Lazio1:3
- 18.09Sassuolo2:1
- 13.09away · Lecce2:3
- 06.09away · Parma1:1
- 01.09away · Torino1:0
Head to head
- 19.04.2025Monza — Napoli0:1
- 29.09.2024Napoli — Monza2:0
- 07.04.2024Monza — Napoli2:4
- 29.12.2023Napoli — Monza0:0
- 14.05.2023Monza — Napoli2:0
Table
Serie A on the same day
- MilanBolognapreliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- ParmaUdinesepreliminary313237XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- VeneziaInterpreliminary612822The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- GenoaJuventuspreliminary1627572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →