Swedish Allsvenskan, round 24 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Sirius — Elfsborg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Sirius are clear favourites: 49% against 25% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sirius are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sirius — Elfsborg What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Sirius not to lose | 75% | |
| Elfsborg not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Form
- 10.10away · GAIS1:0
- 19.09away · Örgryte2:1
- 14.09Degerfors2:0
- 05.09away · Västerås SK1:0
- 31.08Malmö FF0:1
- 12.10Halmstads BK4:0
- 20.09away · Djurgården2:1
- 13.09Kalmar FF1:0
- 06.09away · Brommapojkarna1:2
- 29.08Degerfors2:0
Head to head
- 19.07.2026Elfsborg — Sirius1:3
- 26.10.2025Sirius — Elfsborg4:0
- 23.04.2025Elfsborg — Sirius4:3
- 06.10.2024Sirius — Elfsborg4:1
- 29.04.2024Elfsborg — Sirius2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Sirius | 23 | 17 | +25 | 54 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Djurgården | 23 | 14 | +27 | 44 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Hammarby | 23 | 13 | +28 | 43 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 | Häcken | 23 | 10 | +12 | 39 |
Allsvenskan on the same day
- 4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 1925562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
- 3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 1018732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →