Ligue 1, round 7 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Troyes — Lens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Lens are clear favourites: 72% against 10% for the opponent, draw 18%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lens are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Troyes — Lens What is xG? | 1.0–2.4 | |
| Troyes not to lose | 28% | |
| Lens not to lose | 90% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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- Handicap Troyes
- Troyes goals
- Lens goals
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Form
- 11.10Marseille0:2
- 19.09away · Angers0:2
- 13.09away · Lille0:2
- 06.09Strasbourg2:6
- 29.08away · Lorient2:1
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
- 09.10Lyon2:1
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
Head to head
- 04.02.2026Troyes — Lens2:4
- 28.01.2023Troyes — Lens1:1
- 09.09.2022Lens — Troyes1:0
- 14.05.2022Troyes — Lens1:3
- 05.11.2021Lens — Troyes4:0
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- 5923171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →