Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Vila Nova — Cuiabá
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0:0Came true
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (32%), came true.
Vila Nova are slightly stronger: 38% against 30%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 29%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vila Nova — Cuiabá What is xG? | 1.0–0.9 | |
| Vila Nova not to lose | 70% | |
| Cuiabá not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 29% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 71% |
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Form
- 04.10away · Botafogo SP1:0
- 26.09Londrina2:0
- 19.09América-MG1:0
- 15.09away · Avaí1:1
- 11.09Goiás2:0
- 03.10Ponte Preta2:0
- 27.09away · CRB0:3
- 22.09Náutico3:0
- 14.09away · Novorizontino1:1
- 09.09Athletic Club MG3:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Cuiabá — Vila Nova1:0
- 25.09.2025Vila Nova — Cuiabá2:2
- 27.05.2025Cuiabá — Vila Nova1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | +15 | 61 |
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 10 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
Next matches
- NáuticoVila Nova11 October · Brasileirao Serie B4129301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- CuiabáAvaí12 October · Brasileirao Serie B5726161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.1.9
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5228211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.3
- 3028422The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.3
- 4726271The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →