Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Werder Bremen — Paderborn
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Werder Bremen are clear favourites: 49% against 22% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Werder Bremen are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Werder Bremen — Paderborn What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Werder Bremen not to lose | 78% | |
| Paderborn not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen goals
- Paderborn goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:2
- 19.09Augsburg3:2
- 12.09away · 1. FC Köln1:1
- 05.09RB Leipzig3:1
- 30.08away · Freiburg1:4
- 10.10VfB Stuttgart0:2
- 20.09Hoffenheim3:1
- 12.09away · Borussia Dortmund0:3
- 05.09Freiburg0:1
- 29.08away · Mainz 050:0
Head to head
- 30.10.2024Paderborn — Werder Bremen0:1
- 19.10.2022Paderborn — Werder Bremen2:2
- 22.01.2022Paderborn — Werder Bremen3:4
- 15.08.2021Werder Bremen — Paderborn1:4
- 13.06.2020Paderborn — Werder Bremen1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 2026552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →