UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 2 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Stadio Toumbas
Greece — Netherlands
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Netherlands to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.
Netherlands are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Greece 1801, Netherlands 1974 — Netherlands clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Greece — Netherlands What is xG? | 0.9–1.7 | |
| Greece not to lose | 47% | |
| Netherlands not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Greece
- Greece goals
- Netherlands goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Germany1:0
- 24.09away · Serbia2:1
- 07.06Italy0:1
- 04.06away · Sweden2:2
- 31.03away · Hungary0:0
Head to head
- 16.10.2023Greece — Netherlands0:1
- 07.09.2023Netherlands — Greece3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Quarter-finals | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 2, Quarter-finals | Greece | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Serbia | 4 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Next matches
- GreeceGermany4 October · UEFA Nations League2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- NetherlandsSerbia4 October · UEFA Nations League7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 841331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 7117111The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →