Bundesliga, round 5 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · SNP Arena
Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV
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2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Hoffenheim to win (62%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.
Hoffenheim are clear favourites: 62% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hoffenheim are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV What is xG? | 2.2–1.1 | |
| Hoffenheim not to lose | 85% | |
| Hamburger SV not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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- Handicap Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim goals
- Hamburger SV goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09away · Paderborn1:3
- 17.09away · OFI Crete0:2
- 12.09VfB Stuttgart2:1
- 05.09Borussia Dortmund2:3
- 29.08away · 1. FC Köln2:3
- 19.091. FC Köln2:1
- 13.09away · RB Leipzig0:5
- 06.09Mainz 050:5
- 29.08away · Borussia Dortmund0:2
- 24.08away · SC Verl3:0
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Hamburger SV — Hoffenheim1:2
- 13.12.2025Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
Next matches
- HoffenheimBeşiktaş15 October · Europa League3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart17 October · Bundesliga2026552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
Bundesliga on the same day
- 615802The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 23:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
- 1626572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 5525201The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →