Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Åråsen Stadion
Lillestrøm — Molde
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2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Molde to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Lillestrøm 35%, Molde 37%, draw 28%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Molde are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lillestrøm — Molde What is xG? | 1.6–1.6 | |
| Lillestrøm not to lose | 63% | |
| Molde not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Viking0:3
- 17.09Torreense1:2
- 12.09Vålerenga2:0
- 05.09away · Brann2:1
- 30.08Fredrikstad1:4
- 19.09Aalesund1:2
- 13.09away · Hamarkameratene5:1
- 06.09KFUM2:0
- 30.08away · Vålerenga4:3
- 16.08Tromsø3:2
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Molde — Lillestrøm0:1
- 11.08.2024Lillestrøm — Molde1:2
- 07.07.2024Molde — Lillestrøm3:0
- 12.11.2023Molde — Lillestrøm4:0
- 23.04.2023Lillestrøm — Molde2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Tromsø | 22 | 11 | +11 | 39 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Molde | 22 | 11 | +12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | +9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrøm | 22 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | +5 | 29 |
Next matches
- Sparta PragueLillestrøm15 October · Europa League5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- MoldeStart18 October · Eliteserien7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.7
Eliteserien on the same day
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 5025241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3628362The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →