Ligue 1, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Allianz Riviera
Nice — Strasbourg
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nice to win (45%), came true.
Nice are slightly stronger: 45% against 30%, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nice are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nice — Strasbourg What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Nice not to lose | 70% | |
| Strasbourg not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Nice
- Nice goals
- Strasbourg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Paris FC1:2
- 12.09Monaco1:1
- 06.09away · Troyes6:2
- 29.08Lens2:1
- 21.08away · Marseille0:4
Head to head
- 22.04.2026Strasbourg — Nice0:2
- 04.04.2026Strasbourg — Nice3:1
- 03.01.2026Nice — Strasbourg1:1
- 12.04.2025Strasbourg — Nice2:2
- 24.11.2024Nice — Strasbourg2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
Next matches
- StrasbourgParis Saint-Germain17 October · Ligue 11422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- LyonNice18 October · Ligue 15924181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 5823181The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 1420672The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:3.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →