Ligue 1, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Roazhon Park
Rennes — Auxerre
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4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Rennes to win (58%), came true.
Rennes are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rennes are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rennes — Auxerre What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Rennes not to lose | 82% | |
| Auxerre not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Auxerre goals
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Form
- 19.09away · Lyon0:4
- 16.09away · Sturm Graz0:0
- 11.09Marseille1:0
- 06.09away · Angers2:1
- 30.08Le Mans3:2
Head to head
- 22.02.2026Auxerre — Rennes0:3
- 19.10.2025Rennes — Auxerre2:2
- 06.04.2025Rennes — Auxerre0:1
- 03.11.2024Auxerre — Rennes4:0
- 11.03.2023Auxerre — Rennes0:0
Table
Next matches
- RennesOFI Crete15 October · Europa League751691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Le HavreAuxerre18 October · Ligue 14027321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 4525301The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.8
- 1420672The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:3.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →