Ligue 1, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes — Marseille
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Marseille to win (67%), came true.
Marseille are clear favourites: 67% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Marseille are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Troyes — Marseille What is xG? | 1.2–2.4 | |
| Troyes not to lose | 33% | |
| Marseille not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Troyes
- Troyes goals
- Marseille goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 19.09away · Angers0:2
- 13.09away · Lille0:2
- 06.09Strasbourg2:6
- 29.08away · Lorient2:1
- 22.08Paris FC0:0
- 20.09Paris Saint-Germain1:2
- 17.09away · Beşiktaş1:4
- 11.09away · Rennes0:1
- 06.09Paris FC2:3
- 30.08away · Monaco0:2
Head to head
- 16.04.2023Marseille — Troyes3:1
- 11.01.2023Troyes — Marseille0:2
- 27.02.2022Troyes — Marseille1:1
- 28.11.2021Marseille — Troyes1:0
Table
Next matches
- MarseilleOlympiacos15 October · Europa League3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- TroyesLens17 October · Ligue 11018722The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 4525301The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.8
- 5823181The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →