Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Arena MRV
Atlético-MG — Santos
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético-MG to win (50%), came true.
Atlético-MG are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético-MG are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético-MG: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG — Santos What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 77% | |
| Santos not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Atlético-MG goals
- Santos goals
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Form
- 09.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
- 12.09Fluminense3:1
- 09.10Flamengo2:2
- 03.10away · São Paulo2:1
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
- 13.09Cruzeiro2:1
Head to head
- 17.09.2026Atlético-MG — Santos4:2
- 10.09.2026Santos — Atlético-MG2:0
- 12.04.2026Santos — Atlético-MG1:0
- 14.09.2025Atlético-MG — Santos1:1
- 17.04.2025Santos — Atlético-MG2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
Next matches
- Atlético-MGMontevideo City Torque15 October · Copa Sudamericana5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- FluminenseSantos18 October · Brasileirao5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- 373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →