Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio São Januário
Vasco da Gama — Remo
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Vasco da Gama to win (62%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.
Vasco da Gama are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vasco da Gama are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Vasco da Gama: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vasco da Gama — Remo What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 84% | |
| Remo not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Remo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 08.10away · Botafogo2:1
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
- 12.09away · Grêmio2:1
- 09.09away · Santa Fe0:0
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Remo — Vasco da Gama1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Next matches
- Boca JuniorsVasco da Gama14 October · Copa Sudamericana5426191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- RemoRB Bragantino19 October · Brasileirao333038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
Brasileirao on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
- 373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →