UEFA Nations League, round 4, League D, group 2 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Palms Sports Arena
Azerbaijan — Lithuania
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Azerbaijan to win (42%), came true.
Azerbaijan are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Azerbaijan 1313, Lithuania 1291 — the teams are almost level on rating.
- Azerbaijan: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Azerbaijan — Lithuania What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Azerbaijan not to lose | 72% | |
| Lithuania not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Form
- 01.10Liechtenstein0:0
- 27.09away · Lithuania1:1
- 23.09Tajikistan1:0
- 09.06San Marino2:1
- 05.06Malta0:2
- 30.09Andorra3:0
- 27.09Azerbaijan1:1
- 24.09away · Liechtenstein2:0
- 09.06away · Estonia0:1
- 06.06Latvia1:1
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Lithuania — Azerbaijan1:1
- 25.03.2019Azerbaijan — Lithuania0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 2, Promotion to the league above | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 3, Promotion to the league above | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →