UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 3 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri
Kosovo — Austria
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Austria to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Austria are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Kosovo 1708, Austria 1843 — Austria clearly rated higher.
- Kosovo: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kosovo — Austria What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Kosovo not to lose | 49% | |
| Austria not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kosovo
- Kosovo goals
- Austria goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 01.10away · Israel0:0
- 27.09away · Austria1:3
- 24.09Ireland1:0
- 07.06Andorra3:0
- 31.05away · Czechia1:2
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Austria — Kosovo3:1
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →