UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 3 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Stadion Poljud
Croatia — Spain
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Spain to win (74%), came true.
Spain are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 18%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Croatia 1861, Spain 2282 — Spain clearly rated higher.
- Croatia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Croatia — Spain What is xG? | 0.8–2.3 | |
| Croatia not to lose | 26% | |
| Spain not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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Form
- 03.10England0:7
- 29.09away · Spain1:4
- 26.09away · Czechia2:1
- 03.07away · Portugal1:2
- 28.06Ghana2:1
Head to head
- 29.09.2026Spain — Croatia4:1
- 15.06.2024Spain — Croatia3:0
- 18.06.2023Croatia — Spain0:0
- 28.06.2021Croatia — Spain3:5
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →