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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 1 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · thermoplan arena

Switzerland — North Macedonia

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Switzerland84%
Draw12%
North Macedonia4%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Switzerland to win (84%), came true.

Switzerland are clear favourites: 84% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Switzerland 1972, North Macedonia 1536 — Switzerland clearly rated higher.
  • Switzerland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Switzerland — North Macedonia What is xG?2.7–0.6
Switzerland not to lose96%
North Macedonia not to lose16%
No draw88%
Both teams to score: yes41%
Both teams to score: no59%
Total over 2.564%
Total under 2.536%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Switzerland
  • Switzerland goals
  • North Macedonia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Switzerland

  • 03.10Slovenia2:1
  • 29.09away · Scotland3:0
  • 26.09away · North Macedonia3:0
  • 12.07away · Argentina1:3
  • 07.07Colombia0:0

North Macedonia

  • 03.10Scotland0:2
  • 29.09away · Slovenia0:2
  • 26.09Switzerland0:3
  • 01.06away · Turkiye0:4
  • 29.05away · Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026North Macedonia — Switzerland0:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSwitzerland440011–1+1012
2, Promotion play-offsSlovenia42115–3+27
3Scotland41123–5-24
4, Relegation play-offNorth Macedonia40040–10-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanFaroe Islands
    XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
  • CroatiaSpain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
  • EnglandCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
  • ScotlandSlovenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • AlbaniaSan Marino
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
  • BelarusFinland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
  • MoldovaSlovakia
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
  • EstoniaIceland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →