UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 3 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Wembley Stadium
England — Czechia
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, England to win (83%), came true.
England are clear favourites: 83% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- National-team Elo: England 2144, Czechia 1658 — England clearly rated higher.
- England: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: England — Czechia What is xG? | 2.6–0.7 | |
| England not to lose | 96% | |
| Czechia not to lose | 17% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap England
- England goals
- Czechia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10away · Croatia7:0
- 29.09away · Czechia2:0
- 26.09Spain2:3
- 19.07away · France6:4
- 15.07Argentina1:2
Head to head
- 29.09.2026Czechia — England0:2
- 22.06.2021Czechia — England0:1
- 11.10.2019Czechia — England2:1
- 22.03.2019England — Czechia5:0
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →