Serie A, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Genoa — Fiorentina
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fiorentina to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.
Fiorentina are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Genoa — Fiorentina What is xG? | 1.1–1.3 | |
| Genoa not to lose | 61% | |
| Fiorentina not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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Form
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Fiorentina — Genoa0:0
- 09.11.2025Genoa — Fiorentina2:2
- 02.02.2025Fiorentina — Genoa2:1
- 31.10.2024Genoa — Fiorentina0:1
- 15.04.2024Fiorentina — Genoa1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Parma | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 19, Relegation | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | -7 | 4 |
| 20, Relegation | Venezia | 6 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
Next matches
- RomaGenoa17 October · Serie A6524111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- FiorentinaComo18 October · Serie A2828432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
Serie A on the same day
- 811451The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.1
- 5825171The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →