Ligue 1, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stade Louis-II
Monaco — Toulouse
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2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Monaco to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Monaco are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monaco — Toulouse What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Monaco not to lose | 81% | |
| Toulouse not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Monaco
- Monaco goals
- Toulouse goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09Lens2:1
- 12.09away · Strasbourg1:1
- 04.09away · Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 30.08Marseille2:0
- 23.08away · Le Havre1:0
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Toulouse — Monaco2:2
- 25.10.2025Monaco — Toulouse1:0
- 07.03.2025Toulouse — Monaco1:1
- 07.12.2024Monaco — Toulouse2:0
- 18.02.2024Monaco — Toulouse1:2
Table
Next matches
- CSKA SofiaMonaco15 October · Conference League1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- Le MansToulouse16 October · Ligue 13328392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 6621131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 5425211The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 3226412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 791381The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →