Nigeria NPFL, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Niger Tornadoes — Barau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Niger Tornadoes are clear favourites: 47% against 22% for the opponent, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 1.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 22%, both teams to score — 29%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Niger Tornadoes — Barau What is xG? | 1.0–0.6 | |
| Niger Tornadoes not to lose | 78% | |
| Barau not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 29% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 71% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 22% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 78% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Niger Tornadoes
- Niger Tornadoes goals
- Barau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Ranchers Bees0:0
- 04.10Kun Khalifat1:0
- 27.09away · Nasarawa United0:1
- 23.09Warri Wolves FC0:0
- 19.09away · Katsina United0:1
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
- 23.09Abia Warriors2:0
- 19.09away · Ikorodu City0:0
Head to head
- 14.01.2026Barau — Niger Tornadoes2:1
- 28.12.2025Niger Tornadoes — Barau2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Plateau United | 8 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Barau | 8 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Doma United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Niger Tornadoes | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Abia Warriors | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- EnyimbaKun Khalifatpreliminary6122161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Inter LagosRanchers Beespreliminary373232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- Kano PillarsNasarawa Unitedpreliminary5826171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Katsina UnitedSporting Lagospreliminary6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Kwara UnitedBendel Insurancepreliminary5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- Plateau UnitedWarri Wolves FCpreliminary6921111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- Rivers United FCEnugu Rangerspreliminary6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Shooting StarsAbia Warriorspreliminary6224151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →