DFB-Pokal, round 2 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
RW Essen — RB Leipzig
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
RB Leipzig are clear favourites: 87% against 4% for the opponent, draw 9%.
3.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings RB Leipzig are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RW Essen — RB Leipzig What is xG? | 0.6–3.2 | |
| RW Essen not to lose | 13% | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 96% | |
| No draw | 91% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 73% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 27% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RW Essen
- RW Essen goals
- RB Leipzig goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 23.08St. Pauli2:0
- 18.08Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 17.08RB Leipzig1:4
- 13.08Hamburger SV3:4
- 03.03Holstein Kiel0:3
- 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
- 10.09away · Como1:4
- 05.09away · Werder Bremen1:3
Head to head
- 17.08.2024RW Essen — RB Leipzig1:4
DFB-Pokal on the same day
- BochumMainz 05preliminary1722602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- Sonnenhof GroßaspachAugsburgpreliminary512832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.6
- Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SCpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Borussia DortmundWerder Bremenpreliminary741691The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- ElversbergDarmstadtpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1. FC KölnUnion Berlinpreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →