UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Hoffenheim — Lyon
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Hoffenheim 35%, Lyon 39%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hoffenheim are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hoffenheim — Lyon What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Hoffenheim not to lose | 61% | |
| Lyon not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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Form
- 10.10Hamburger SV2:3
- 20.09away · Paderborn1:3
- 17.09away · OFI Crete0:2
- 12.09VfB Stuttgart2:1
- 05.09Borussia Dortmund2:3
- 09.10away · Lens1:2
- 19.09Rennes4:0
- 16.09away · Anderlecht2:1
- 12.09away · Paris FC0:0
- 04.09Auxerre3:1
Head to head
- 07.11.2024Hoffenheim — Lyon2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 29 | Milan | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | NK Celje | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary3927351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary6023181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2325522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →