Serie B, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, 18:15 MSK · Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza

LR Vicenza — Pisa

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true

LR Vicenza27%

Draw27%

Pisa46%

Model estimate at 17:57 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Pisa to win (46%), came true.

Pisa are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

By the strength ratings Pisa are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: LR Vicenza — Pisa What is xG?		1.4–1.7
LR Vicenza not to lose		55%
Pisa not to lose		73%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		64%
Both teams to score: no		36%
Total over 2.5		60%
Total under 2.5		40%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap LR Vicenza
LR Vicenza goals
Pisa goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

LR Vicenza

20.09away · Hellas Verona1:2
12.09Juve Stabia1:1
06.09away · Virtus Entella2:2
29.08away · Avellino0:3
21.08Catanzaro3:2

Pisa

20.09away · Mantova2:2
15.09away · Fiorentina0:3
11.09Virtus Entella1:4
06.09away · Juve Stabia3:0
30.08Catanzaro2:1

Head to head

15.02.2022Pisa — LR Vicenza2:2
18.09.2021LR Vicenza — Pisa1:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Promotion play-offs	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11–7	+4	10
7, Promotion play-offs	Pisa	6	3	1	2	11–8	+3	10
8, Promotion play-offs	Benevento	6	3	1	2	8–5	+3	10
16, Relegation play-off	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6–10	-4	6
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	6	1	2	3	7–13	-6	5
18, Relegation	Carrarese	6	1	1	4	4–6	-2	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

16:00
BeneventoLR Vicenza17 October · Serie B
532620
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
20:30
PisaCremonese17 October · Serie B
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8

Serie B on the same day

16:00
BeneventoCesena
383032
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.6
16:00
EmpoliPalermo
302941
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
16:00
Virtus EntellaJuve Stabia
463024
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
16:00
SüdtirolAscoli
413029
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
20:30
ArezzoCremonese
282944
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →