UEFA Nations League, round 2, League A, group 3 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Spain — Croatia
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4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Spain to win (77%), came true.
Spain are clear favourites: 77% against 7% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Spain 2277, Croatia 1895 — Spain clearly rated higher.
- Spain: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spain — Croatia What is xG? | 2.5–0.6 | |
| Spain not to lose | 93% | |
| Croatia not to lose | 23% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Spain
- Spain goals
- Croatia goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 26.09away · England3:2
- 19.07Argentina1:0
- 14.07away · France2:0
- 10.07Belgium2:1
- 06.07away · Portugal1:0
- 26.09away · Czechia2:1
- 03.07away · Portugal1:2
- 28.06Ghana2:1
- 24.06away · Panama1:0
- 17.06away · England2:4
Head to head
- 15.06.2024Spain — Croatia3:0
- 18.06.2023Croatia — Spain0:0
- 28.06.2021Croatia — Spain3:5
Table
Next matches
- CroatiaEngland3 October · UEFA Nations League2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- SpainCzechia3 October · UEFA Nations League88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →