Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Fazendense — Estrela da Amadora
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Estrela da Amadora are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Estrela da Amadora are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fazendense — Estrela da Amadora What is xG? | 0.9–2.0 | |
| Fazendense not to lose | 38% | |
| Estrela da Amadora not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fazendense
- Fazendense goals
- Estrela da Amadora goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Arouca0:1
- 20.09Académico Viseu0:2
- 14.09away · Rio Ave3:3
- 10.09Braga2:1
- 05.09Famalicão2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- 3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 7018111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 2926442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →