Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Louletano — Rio Ave

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Model prediction for 17 October

Louletano18%
Draw23%
Rio Ave60%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Rio Ave are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Rio Ave are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Louletano — Rio Ave What is xG?1.0–1.9
Louletano not to lose40%
Rio Ave not to lose82%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Louletano
  • Louletano goals
  • Rio Ave goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Louletano

  • 20.09away · Serpa2:1
  • 19.10away · Silves FC1:2
  • 21.09Operário5:0
  • 22.09away · Moncarapachense1:2

Rio Ave

  • 11.10Nacional3:2
  • 19.09away · Alverca0:1
  • 14.09Estrela da Amadora3:3
  • 06.09away · Santa Clara0:4
  • 28.08Sporting CP0:4

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Taca de Portugal on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →