UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Roma — Slovan Bratislava
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Roma are clear favourites: 91% against 2% for the opponent, draw 7%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 78%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Roma are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Roma — Slovan Bratislava What is xG? | 3.6–0.5 | |
| Roma not to lose | 98% | |
| Slovan Bratislava not to lose | 9% | |
| No draw | 93% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 78% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 22% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Roma
- Roma goals
- Slovan Bratislava goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 09.09away · Paris Saint-Germain1:6
- 18.12Häcken1:0
- 11.12away · KF Shkendija0:2
- 27.11Rayo Vallecano2:1
- 06.11away · KuPS1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 34 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeSlavia Praguepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- Sabah FKBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1118712The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- Paris Saint-GermainBarcelonapreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- LiverpoolVillarrealpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- Manchester CityAEK Athenspreliminary761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- FC PortoPSV Eindhovenpreliminary5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- NapoliBodø/Glimtpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- VfB StuttgartAtlético Madridpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 91% will not happen in roughly 9 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →