UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
FC Porto — PSV Eindhoven
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Porto — PSV Eindhoven What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 76% | |
| PSV Eindhoven not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Porto
- FC Porto goals
- PSV Eindhoven goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
- 20.09Benfica3:1
- 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
- 08.09Manchester City0:2
- 04.09Moreirense2:1
- 09.10SC Heerenveen2:0
- 20.09away · FC Twente2:3
- 13.09Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- 10.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- 05.09away · Ajax3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeSlavia Praguepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- Sabah FKBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1118712The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- Paris Saint-GermainBarcelonapreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- LiverpoolVillarrealpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- Manchester CityAEK Athenspreliminary761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- RomaSlovan Bratislavapreliminary91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- NapoliBodø/Glimtpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- VfB StuttgartAtlético Madridpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →