UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
VfB Stuttgart — Atlético Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings VfB Stuttgart are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart — Atlético Madrid What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 73% | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Paderborn2:0
- 19.09Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 12.09away · Hoffenheim1:2
- 09.09Viking3:1
- 04.091. FC Köln4:1
- 10.10away · Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
- 09.09away · Liverpool1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lille | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Inter | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeSlavia Praguepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- Sabah FKBorussia Dortmundpreliminary1118712The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- Paris Saint-GermainBarcelonapreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- LiverpoolVillarrealpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- Manchester CityAEK Athenspreliminary761581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- RomaSlovan Bratislavapreliminary91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- FC PortoPSV Eindhovenpreliminary5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- NapoliBodø/Glimtpreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →