Prediction of the day: Villarreal — Napoli
Tuesday, 13 October · One main match a day: the model picks it among the competitions the readers of this version of the site follow.
Champions LeagueToday, MSK
In play
- Most likely score
- 1:0
- Why this match
- Close to even
Evenly matched: Villarreal 40%, Napoli 34%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
- By the strength ratings Villarreal are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Villarreal: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Tomorrow
Champions LeagueTomorrow, MSK
Roma — Real Madrid
Roma 44% · Draw 26% · Real Madrid 30%
- Most likely score
- 1:0
- Why this match
- Close to even
A week of daily picks
The model got the outcome right in 3 of 6.
- LevanteSevilla12 October · La Liga4528271The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- LiverpoolManchester City11 October · Premier League3327392The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- SunderlandBrighton & Hove Albion10 October · Premier League2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- LensLyon9 October · Ligue 15024261The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.2
- Pamba JijiGeita Gold FC8 October · Tanzania Premier League342937XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X4:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.5
- Shooting StarsKano Pillars7 October · Nigeria NPFL5924171The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
How we choose
The candidates are the day’s matches with a model forecast in the competitions this version’s readers follow: football of their main competitions first; without it, hockey and basketball.
A match ranks higher when its competition is nearer the top of that list, its teams are stronger (power ranking and table place) and the chances are closer to even. A match before 10 a.m. counts for less.
The day’s pick does not change once the day has begun, so you can check it against the result.
The prediction of the day can come as a notification at 10:00 — turn it on in your profile. Notifications →