UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 2 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Stadions Skonto
Latvia — Montenegro
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Montenegro to win (50%), came true.
Montenegro are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Latvia 1269, Montenegro 1490 — Montenegro clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Latvia — Montenegro What is xG? | 1.0–1.6 | |
| Latvia not to lose | 50% | |
| Montenegro not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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Form
- 28.09Cyprus0:0
- 25.09away · Armenia0:2
- 09.06Faroe Islands0:1
- 06.06away · Lithuania1:1
- 31.03Gibraltar1:0
- 28.09away · Armenia3:2
- 25.09Cyprus2:1
- 05.06away · Slovakia2:2
- 01.06away · Bulgaria1:0
- 31.03Slovenia2:3
Head to head
- 07.09.2021Montenegro — Latvia0:0
- 24.03.2021Latvia — Montenegro1:2
- 07.10.2020Montenegro — Latvia1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | -4 | 1 |
Next matches
- CyprusLatvia5 October · UEFA Nations League5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- MontenegroArmenia5 October · UEFA Nations League5922191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →