Premium
EN
Sections

UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 4 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Stadion Narodowy

Poland — Romania

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

6:0Came true
Poland52%
Draw26%
Romania23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:0: the model's most likely outcome, Poland to win (52%), came true.

Poland are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Poland 1681, Romania 1590 — Poland rated higher.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Poland — Romania What is xG?1.8–1.1
Poland not to lose77%
Romania not to lose48%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Poland
  • Poland goals
  • Romania goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Poland

  • 28.09away · Sweden1:3
  • 25.09Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 03.06Nigeria2:2
  • 31.05Ukraine0:2
  • 31.03away · Sweden2:3

Romania

  • 28.09Bosnia and Herzegovina2:4
  • 25.09away · Sweden1:2
  • 06.06Wales2:1
  • 02.06away · Georgia1:1
  • 31.03away · Slovakia0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaPoland5 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
  • RomaniaSweden5 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanMoldova
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
  • CyprusArmenia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
  • LatviaMontenegro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • BelgiumTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
  • FranceItaly
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
  • HungaryGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
  • UkraineNorthern Ireland
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →