The model’s week: 5 October – 11 October
The model’s most likely outcome came true in 368 of 607 matches (61%), against the 57% it expected — favourites won even more often than it promised.
- matches predicted
- 607
- picks came true
- 61%
- the model expected
- 57%
- upsets
- 39
By sport
| Sport | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 277 | 57% | 49% |
| Hockey | 144 | 60% | 59% |
| Tennis | 160 | 67% | 65% |
| Basketball | 26 | 69% | 66% |
Confident calls that came true
Biggest misses
There were 39 upsets — wins by a side the model gave 30% or less — and it expected about 58.8.
Hoffenheim2:3Hamburger SV
15%for the winner62%favourite — Hoffenheim
Mbeya City1:3Kagera Sugar
16%for the winner58%favourite — Mbeya City
Walton A.1:2Te R.
16%for the winner84%favourite — Walton A.
Falkirk1:2Dundee FC
19%for the winner57%favourite — Falkirk
LASK0:2Rapid Wien
20%for the winner56%favourite — LASK
Gauff C.0:2Mertens E.
20%for the winner80%favourite — Gauff C.
By league
| League | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATP | 113 | 70% | 65% |
| NHL | 48 | 67% | 58% |
| WTA | 47 | 60% | 64% |
| AHL | 29 | 52% | 57% |
| UEFA Nations League | 18 | 61% | 57% |
| MLS | 15 | 60% | 45% |
| Czech Extraliga | 14 | 86% | 63% |
| DEL | 14 | 57% | 63% |
| SHL | 14 | 43% | 60% |
| Liiga | 13 | 38% | 59% |
| Championship | 12 | 58% | 43% |
| National League | 12 | 67% | 60% |
| Nigeria NPFL | 11 | 64% | 58% |
| EuroLeague | 10 | 50% | 66% |
| J1 League | 10 | 40% | 43% |
| Serie B | 10 | 30% | 40% |
| Liga ACB | 9 | 78% | 68% |
| Belgian Pro League | 9 | 33% | 49% |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 56% | 58% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 9 | 44% | 45% |
| Premier League | 9 | 78% | 47% |
| Ghana Premier League | 9 | 100% | 54% |
| Ligue 1 | 9 | 78% | 58% |
| Eredivisie | 9 | 33% | 54% |
| Saudi Pro League | 8 | 63% | 56% |
| La Liga | 8 | 75% | 51% |
| Segunda Division | 8 | 63% | 44% |
| Ligue 2 | 8 | 63% | 43% |
| Botola Pro | 8 | 38% | 40% |
| Ekstraklasa | 8 | 75% | 46% |
| Primeira Liga | 8 | 100% | 52% |
| Serie A | 8 | 63% | 53% |
| Tanzania Premier League | 8 | 25% | 40% |
| Super Lig | 8 | 50% | 54% |
Only leagues with at least 8 matches in the week: on fewer the share says nothing.
Each match counts with the model’s last estimate before kick-off, the one its page showed; hockey includes overtime. A week runs Monday to Sunday, Moscow time.