J1 League: matchday 10 predictions
17–18 October · 10 matches · season 2026/27
J1 League matchday 10: 10 matches, 17–18 October. The model expects 2.7 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 6 matches, an away win in 4. In matchday 9 the most likely outcome came true in 4 of 10 matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favouriteSanfrecce Hiroshima — Kyoto Sanga FCSanfrecce Hiroshima 72% to win; most likely score 1:0
- Closest matchShimizu S-Pulse — Gamba Osaka37% v 34%, draw 29%
- Most goals expectedCerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale3.3 goals on average; over 2.5: 64%
- Possible upsetKashiwa Reysol — Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus 23% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
What is at stake
Kashiwa Reysol lead with 21 points from 9 matches; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are second, 1 point behind. The leader’s game this round: Kashiwa Reysol — Nagoya Grampus, 50% to win. Title chances by the season forecast: Kashiwa Reysol 9%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 52%.
In the relegation zone: Gamba Osaka, JEF United Chiba and Tokyo Verdy; they are 1 to 3 points behind 17th place. Most at risk by the season forecast: Tokyo Verdy, 70% to go down.
The matches
Saturday, 17 October
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
- 4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- 5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Sunday, 18 October
- 3029402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
- 5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
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