Prediction accuracy: hockey
What is checked: the result in regulation: home win, draw or away win. An honest probability means outcomes at 70% happen about 70% of the time.
Check on history
The teams’ strength was refitted every week on past matches only, and the probability correction of each season was fitted on the seasons before it. The KHL and the NHL with the same model parameters, as it predicts now. That is how 3,772 matches from 4 October 2024 to 12 October 2026 were checked.
| Model estimate | Estimates | Average | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 816 | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| 20–30% | 4,476 | 23.1% | 23.8% |
| 30–40% | 2,532 | 35.3% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 2,305 | 44.5% | 42.1% |
| 50–60% | 907 | 53.9% | 51.8% |
| 60–70% | 259 | 63.8% | 59.1% |
How to read probabilities and calibration →
Only the model's favourite
| Confidence from | Share of matches | Estimate | Came true |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 93% | 48.5% | 46.1% |
| 50% | 31% | 56.4% | 53.8% |
| 60% | 7% | 64.3% | 60.0% |
| 70% | 1% | 71.4% | 71.4% |
Overall the model's most likely outcome came true in 46% of matches, with the favourite estimated at 48% on average. When the two are close, the model neither overstates nor understates its confidence; and even the most likely outcome coming true only about half the time is normal where a draw is possible.
By competition
«Honest»: the gap between the favourite’s estimate and how often it won is within the random spread for that many matches.
| Competition | Matches | Favourite came true | Favourite’s estimate | Probabilities |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 2,792 | 44.4% | 46.9% | favourite overrated |
| KHL | 980 | 49.6% | 50.6% | honest |
Since launch
We store the last estimate before each match and never change it afterwards. Since 28 September 2026 the most likely outcome came true in 193 of 322 matches with an expected share of 61%. Here the winner includes overtime and shootouts, as the site shows the prediction.
| Competition | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 89 | 56 | 59% |
| KHL | 62 | 35 | 63% |
| AHL | 32 | 17 | 57% |
| Belarus Extraleague | 31 | 24 | 68% |
| VHL | 31 | 17 | 60% |
| Czech Extraliga | 14 | 12 | 63% |
| SHL | 14 | 6 | 60% |
| DEL | 14 | 8 | 63% |
| Liiga | 13 | 5 | 59% |
| National League | 12 | 8 | 60% |
| Kazakhstan Championship | 10 | 5 | 68% |
Latest 12 matches
- CherepovetsSKA St. Petersburg13 October · KHL51491The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- AktobeBeibarys Atyrau13 October · Kazakhstan Championship40602The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- Rubin TyumenTambov13 October · VHL63371The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
- HC YugraBuran Voronezh13 October · VHL79211The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.1
- KurganDizel13 October · VHL49512The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.1
- Omskie KryliaKristall Saratov13 October · VHL70301The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:1Final score 7:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
- Metallurg NovokuznetskIzhevsk13 October · VHL80201The most likely outcome came true: 118%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- KrasnoyarskToros Neftekamsk13 October · VHL49512The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
- Dyn. AltayOlympia13 October · VHL58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.4.4
- Minnesota WildVegas Golden Knights13 October · NHL48522The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- New Jersey DevilsOttawa Senators13 October · NHL41592The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:4, exactly right.5.3
- Buffalo SabresFlorida Panthers12 October · NHL51491The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.6